Thanksgiving 2025 Travel to Set Record

If you expect be on the road or in the air for Thanksgiving 2025, you will be in good company.  AAA predicts another record-setting holiday, with nearly 82 million Americans joining you on trips at least 50 miles from home.

Roads are expected to be more clogged than usual, since many of us have decided to drive rather than fly because of the recent US government shutdown and thousands of cancelled or delayed flights.

Here are the details.  You can’t say we didn’t warn you.

AAA projects 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period, which is from Tuesday, November 25 to Monday, December 1. 

This year’s domestic travel forecast includes an additional 1.6 million travelers compared to last Thanksgiving, setting a new overall record. Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel compared to others like Memorial Day and July 4th.

Thanksgiving 2025 Travelers by Car  

AAA projects at least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers and an additional 1.3 million people on the road compared to last Thanksgiving. That number could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations. 

For travelers who are renting cars, AAA car rental partner Hertz says Wednesday is expected to be the busiest pick-up day.

The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark.

That’s the bad news.  The good news is that according to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 15% cheaper this Thanksgiving compared to last year. 

At the pump, drivers are paying about the same as last year, when the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.06 on Thanksgiving Day. 

Filling the tank is a good idea the night before a road trip since it’s one less thing to do on travel day.

AAA also recommends checking your battery and tire pressure. Last Thanksgiving holiday period, AAA responded to nearly 600,000 emergency roadside assistance calls to help stranded drivers with issues like dead batteries, flat tires, and empty fuel tanks.  

This is also a good time to remind travelers about the dangers of impaired driving, and also about road rage.

This time of year can be particularly deadly on the roads. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, from 2019 to 2023, the death toll in drunk-driving crashes during Thanksgiving festivities totaled a whopping  one-third (35%) of all fatalities in traffic crashes during that holiday period. 

Have a plan in place before Thanksgiving, and use a rideshare, designate a sober driver, or take public transit to ensure everyone’s safety. 

See also – Tips to avoid road rage

Thanksgiving 2025 Travel By Air:

According to AAA, 6 million U.S. travelers are expected to take domestic flights over the Thanksgiving holiday period, a 2% increase compared to 2024.

That figure could end up being slightly lower as some air travelers made other plans due to the Trump Administration government shutdown and the flight cancellations it caused. The number of Thanksgiving air travelers over the past several years – with the exception of 2020 – has been between 5 and 6 million.  

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Thanksgiving trips, a roundtrip domestic flights average $700, which is similar to last year. 

It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days. Some travelers shorten or extend their Thanksgiving trips to avoid flying on peak days. 

Thanksgiving 2025 Travel by Other Modes

Travel by other modes is expected to increase by 8.5% to nearly 2.5 million people. Those travelers are taking trips by bus, train, and cruise. Buses and trains could see an uptick in last-minute bookings this year.  

Cruising is building on its record post-pandemic growth. This year alone, AAA is projecting 20.7 million American cruise passengers. 

That number is even higher for 2026 with AAA forecasting 21.7 million U.S. travelers taking ocean cruises. Cruise vacations are appealing during Thanksgiving, especially to the Caribbean, because the weather is mild, the trip is paid in advance, and families can bring grandparents and kids, and everyone is entertained. 

 AAA’s TopThanksgiving 2025 Destinations 

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the Thanksgiving travel period. Florida is the most popular domestic destination, thanks to the area’s theme parks and cruise ports. The international list is a mix of Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia for its warm spring weather this time of year. 

 Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro 

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon to be the most congested periods before Thanksgiving Day. 

Travelers returning home on Sunday should expect heavy traffic most of the day. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst backups, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times. Slow Down, Move Over for emergency responders and other stopped vehicles on the side of the road to ensure everyone’s safety. 

Please note the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT. 

 Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology  

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.   

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 20, 2025. 

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure.

Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors. 

INRIX Methodology 

INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike. 

About AAA 

Founded in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts advocating for better roads and safer mobility, AAA has grown into one of North America’s largest and most trusted membership organizations. AAA provides world-class roadside assistance, travel planning, exclusive discounts, and reliable financial and insurance services. Today, AAA enhances the life journey of more than 65 million members across North America, including over 58 million in the United States.

• Learn more or become a member at AAA.com. 

About S&P Global Market Intelligence 

S&P Global Market Intelligence delivers unrivaled insights and leading data and technology solutions, partnering with customers to expand their perspective, operate with confidence, and make decisions with conviction. S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. 

• For more information, visit spglobal.com/marketintelligence. 

About MMGY 

MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries. With operating brands around the world, the organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. 

• For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com. 

About INRIX    

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener.

• Learn more at INRIX.com.  

ecoXplorer Evelyn Kanter is an award-winning journalist with 25+ years of experience as a newspaper and magazine writer, radio & TV news producer & reporter, and author of guidebooks and smartphone apps – all focusing on travel, automotive, the environment and your rights as a consumer.

ecoXplorer Evelyn Kanter is President Emeritus of the International Motor Press Assn. (IMPA).

ecoXplorer Evelyn Kanter also is a member of the North American Travel Journalists Assn. (NATJA) and the North American Snowsports Journalists Assn. (NASJA).

Contact me at evelyn@ecoxplorer.com.

Copyright (C) Evelyn Kanter

Thanks for following ecoXplorer.