July 4th Travel Week to Set Record

This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year, partly because it includes two weekends instead of one. 

The prediction for 2025 is 7 million more than the previous record before last year, which was all the way back in 2019.

Here’s what AAA is telling us –

July 4th Week Travel by Mode of Transportation 

By Car – AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2% increase over last year, and the highest volume on record.

This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024.

AAA and ecoXplorer both recommend getting routine vehicle maintenance ahead of your trip and packing an emergency kit.

Last July 4th week, AAA responded to nearly 700,000 emergency roadside assistance calls for issues like dead batteries and flat tires, plus people locking themselves out of their car or running out of gas.  

Gas Prices – Drivers are seeing some increases at the pump, but summer gas prices are still the lowest they’ve been since 2021. This year, the price of crude oil has kept gas prices on the lower side.

The Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days but not dramatically. Escalation and duration of the conflict are two factors to watch.

Weather is also a wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.   

Car Rental –  Hertz says Thursday, July 3rd is expected to be the busiest day to pick up vehicles. Hertz says most drivers are looking to rent SUVs and midsize sedans. 

Before you rent, know the do’s and don’ts to save money on rentals.

Some top destinations based on advanced bookings are also on AAA’s list of most popular places to visit over July 4th: Orlando, Denver, Boston, Oahu, and Seattle.

By Air – The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s 8% of all Independence Day travelers. 

That’s a  1.4% increase over the previous record set last year, Independence Day week 2024, of 5.76 million air travelers.  

The projection is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4th trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, 4% more expensive than last year.

When booking last-minute flights for summer trips, consider flying on weekdays like Tuesdays or Wednesdays for the best deals.  

By Other Modes – Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4% over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise.

This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is particularly popular this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing. 

Top Independence Day Week Destinations

Cruises, beaches, and fireworks are the main motivators for travelers heading to these cities.

Alaska cruises are in peak season, Florida and Hawaii are in high demand for their resorts and attractions, and New York and Boston host two of the most popular fireworks shows in the nation.

Internationally, Vancouver tops the list followed by Europe’s most in-demand cities during the summer. 

Best/Worst Times to Drive 

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects Wednesday, July 2 and Sunday, July 6 to be the busiest days on the road.

Afternoon hours will be the most congested. Drivers should hit the road in the morning to avoid the worst traffic, but keep in mind construction, crashes, or severe weather could impact travel times.  

All these times are for the time in which the metro area is located.

Holiday Forecast Methodology   

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of May 19, 2025. 

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period  

The Independence Day holiday travel period is defined as the nine-day period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.  

About AAA   – Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations, with 65+ million members across North America, including nearly 58 million in the USA.  AAA delivers roadside assistance, helps travelers plan  vacations and adventures, offers exclusive member discounts and benefits, and provides trusted financial and insurance services.

About S&P Global  – S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence to governments, businesses, and technology to decisions re the data. That includes  credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. 

About MMGY – The world’s leading integrated marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality, and lifestyle industries.

About INRIX    – Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights and is one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. At the intersection of technology and transportation, it empowers cities, businesses, and people to  make the world smarter, safer, and greener,  whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights.

ecoXplorer Evelyn Kanter is an award-winning journalist with 25+ years of experience as a newspaper and magazine writer, radio & TV news producer & reporter, and author of guidebooks and smartphone apps – all focusing on travel, automotive, the environment and your rights as a consumer.

ecoXplorer Evelyn Kanter is President Emeritus of the International Motor Press Assn. (IMPA).

ecoXplorer Evelyn Kanter also is a member of the North American Travel Journalists Assn. (NATJA) and the North American Snowsports Journalists Assn. (NASJA).

Contact me at evelyn@ecoxplorer.com.

Copyright (C) Evelyn Kanter

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